Coronavirus - COVID-19

John Oliver contextualises the 2% figure, though he doesn’t do a good job.

Do a thought experiment with that figure.

If a million people get infected, that’s 20,000 people dead. If half the world’s population gets infected (which is what I’ve heard some doctors warning about), that’s 154 million people dead.

In a scenario where the virus hits South Africa—and we can’t stop its spread like a tyrannical regime like China has been able to—it is very likely that someone you know, a friend or family member, will die from the disease.

You have to combine the mortality figure with the infection data to get a complete picture of just how devastating this virus could be.

Maybe. I’ll have to digest some more information before I formulate my opinion on this.

No disagreement there.

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Now that is a good point.

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On its own, it’s not a particularly deadly disease. It seems reasonably easy to treat. From the statistics, it appears to be most deadly to the elderly and people suffering from other health complications.

However, if it scales up drastically to a point where hospitals can no longer cope with the influx of serious cases, the mortality rate will be higher. Coupled with the vast numbers of immune compromised people in South Africa, that 2% could end up being much higher.

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Ive been watching Dr mike, a youtuber and doctor, he has been doing weekly updates and taking about myths surrounding the virus etc. I think it just a good thing for the earth, and china as a whole, theor air pollution and such has unfortunately made them succeptible to airborne diseases… Hopefully the shutdown clears up some of the pollution surrounding the city
This was pretty interesting to see:

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My now ex-Girlfriend lives in Japan and she lives north of Hiroshima city. They have now closed the schools.

I Think its quite interesting how the media can over hype news. So much news last year in regards to the Fires in South America, but not as much for Australia. This Just shows they are making it seem bigger than what it really is.

I just feel that they dont know what this is and its like the SARS thing all over again just these days Social media is blowing up the news more now that it used to

https://visalist.io/emergency/coronavirus for what its worth I visit this site alot to see whats happening but i feel that governments around the world are hiding the real figures

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I posted this yesterday.
I’m a visual person and above all else this helped put things into perspective for me… more or less. Cold, hard statistics. (also I had no idea swine flu was that bad, jeez)
Link to full video

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I missed your video post… But that puts things into a bit of perspective. What is crazy is how long after the first diagnosis the swine flu virus still exploded and infected so many people!

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Yeah also watched doc mike since he does his research, Just another virus yeah perhaps we will get it perhaps not so be it.
But yeah the media is covering it a whole lot. Since well its bad news and bad news sells.

These visualisations comparing COVID-19 to other causes of death are premature. If the infection rate continues to grow exponentially, your chances of dying from the virus also increases dramatically.

(The comparison of infection rates is interesting, though. If this goes the same way as the H1N1 outbreak in 2010, then a lot of people are going to die.)

All of these comparisons are oversimplified and so what we’re seeing is the whole thing being either completely over-hyped, or completely under-hyped.

Let me put it this way — there is no way that China is forcing people to stay in their homes and shutting down factories all over the country over a silly little flu. This thing is a killer and will destabilise the whole country if left unchecked more than shutting the factories for three months will.

There’s no need to head for the hills just yet, but some respect for this virus is warranted.

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In the late 60’s, a new virus started spreading through the world. People have speculated that it’s origins were somewhere in Africa, where the virus made the jump from chimpanzees to humans. This virus spread unbeknownst to anyone, and with little to no knowledge or awareness, by the 80’s, this virus started wreaking havoc. The virus was labeled AIDS, and a world wide pandemic alert was raised, causing the WHO to aggressively start treatment research, putting in preventative measures and spreading awareness of the virus. All this in a time well before the internet, let alone social media.

I write this story not to directly compare the severity of AIDS to COVID-19, but rather use as an example why the narrative of “overblown media” and “overhyping the virus” is wrong.

You see, COVID-19 as a single entity is not the worst virus to ever exist on earth. But it has the potential to kill hundreds of million of people. It is a virus that spreads easily, has mild symptoms, and mimics other less scary diseases. It is a virus you may have any never think about getting tested and getting really checked out, rather just drinking your flu medicine and waiting for it to pass. It is a virus that can seriously spread around the world at an alarming rate.

COVID-19 at the moment has a 2-3% mortality rate, a rate as reported on the current numbers, and from developed countries with good health systems. Imagine what the mortality rate would be is more people from countries with less in place health systems

And so, COVID-19 dominates media coverage. Less than one month after it’s discovery, the whole world sprung into action, putting in place preventative measures, talking about it, raising awareness, trying to curb the spread of a disease that could kill millions. And so, in an effort to combat this, many companies and countries put in place strict travel rules, additional health checks etc. Even in SA you will find a few more cleaning requirements to do before being admitted to certain hospitals.

So what about other diseases that is currently killing more people? What about TB, the flu, or anything else? Well, awareness campaigns and discussion in media of these diseases means that at the moment, while they may be deadly, they do not pose a massive threat to the world. The world knows about them, known how to prevent them, knows where they come from, and how to treat them. COVID-19 is not there yet. There is way too much misinformation about it’s origin, its mortality, and how fast it mutates. But it’s good that the greater population of earth is made aware of this in order to combat it far earlier than other viruses.

In summary, the media coverage might seem overblown and a bit too much, but the awareness it creates is EXACTLY why such media coverage is needed. Here we are, geeks and nerds, on a gaming website, talking about it, creating awareness and spreading information about it. This is the best way this virus will not become a world wide pandemic catastrophe.

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Been watching the numbers growing here, and a somewhat concerning curiosity jumps out at me when looking at the numbers by country, confirmed by the tracker that @z1oc posted about yesterday.

Where are all the African infections??

I count just 10 at the moment, across the entire continent. This is weird to me - many Africans live in close communities, extended families sharing small spaces, cooking and eating and sleeping together. Many do not have access to even basic levels of hygiene, health care and disease prevention. We pack multitudes more than is logical into the cramped confines of mini buses and trains, and squeeze thousands more into our soccer stadiums on the weekends. And yet, we only have 10 infections across the entire continent???

I mean, I live with just my wife and my daughter in a fairly large, modern house, with access to good medical cover and hygiene practices. Yet I am in bed right now typing this with a major dose of the flu that I picked up from the Missus, who was woman down for most of last week. She got it from our daughter who was down with it the week before. She in turn, we believe, picked it up from one of the 200-odd students she shares classrooms and labs with at varsity.

My concern is that we are either not able to identify those infected properly, or those infected are not able to reach required healthcare facilities in order to get reported on in the first place. Or we’re not being given adequate information from our health officials to help us identify those infected. I’d be curious to see the reported cases of standard flu from Africa over the same period.

The other possibility is that African nations are not being open and forthcoming with the information and numbers. This last possibility is far more dangerous in my mind. Remember how our health departments tried to blur the numbers of HIV/AIDS cases initially? More recently, remember how the nation went into panic mode from the listeriosis outbreak? A lack of information and transparency in these situations triggers panic, misinformation spreads, and more harm than is needed is done.

Like @DieGrootHammer says, awareness and information at this stage are crucial.

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It could be that testing for corona is not yet prevalent, there could be many more cases but not many people have been tested yet. Otherwise they could be right about the virus finding it hard to spread in hotter humid climates.

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i Saw on reddit i think a dude from SA came back from holiday and he had a fever he passed everything in at the airport. He went to the Hospital just to be sure and to do the right thing. Test for COVID-19 would cost 7500 with medical aid. They sent him home for the flu and a Goodluck. thats quite shocking i feel.

I have a friend who works in Thailand and shes been feeling ill. She went to the hospital and they told her they need 21000 Baht to get tested. Thats also quite shocking considering the situation.

im guessing if its going to work like this no wonder its spreading.

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The reason the test is so expensive is that it is very new and not yet made at scale. Plus the fact that it is in such high demand, it is expected to have a high cost.

Also, it is HIGHLY likely the guy on reddit just has normal flu, but SA subreddit loves to bash SA and a lot of things wrong in the country, so I would take his word with a VERY big pinch of salt.

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yea thats true. I went on the SA sub reddit wanting to say something nice and wow they just so negative :smiley: sometimes you cant win

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See I take the threat of this seriously BUT I also feel that some reactions are a bit over the top. We need viruses like this to cull the world population - hate me for saying that all you want but humans are making a mess of this planet and we do need a proper virus that does not discriminate to help out in this regard.

What is driving me nuts tho is how it is starting to affect companies worldwide. Even us at the vape shop is starting to feel the pinch, we are receiving a container of stock soon but now the question is - is the contents safe. The guys are eve worried about the goods that are boxed in boxes.

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I received a new inverter last week that had been backordered. Came straight from China.

I opened the box, took in a big inhale, and said “Mmmm. Smells like coronavirus”

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The Fed in America even did an emergency 50 basis point cut in interest rates yesterday.

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The boss is in a panic so I told him it is being quarantined in anycase. But he wants to take extra precautions and I opened my mouth and asked about the items in the boxes - what if it is on there and now he is even more paranoid

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Surely the virus dies after being exposed to air for some time? Presumably its taken quite a while to get shipped to SA.

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